| 1 | | VIX > 30 | 14.21 | 30.00 | 5-day avg 15.41 | UNMET | 2026-09-22 |
| | CBOE Volatility Index above 30 signals elevated fear / capitulation. Below 20 = complacent; 20-30 = elevated; >30 = panic. |
| 2 | | Fed funds rate not upward | 3.88% | Δ90d ≤ 0 | Δ90d = +25 bps | UNMET | 2026-09-21 |
| | Effective Fed Funds Rate (DFF) is flat or declining over the trailing 90 days. Cuts/pauses support equities; hikes don't. |
| 3 | | Margin debt decreasing | $1011.6B | 6mo Δ < 0 | 6mo Δ = +7.1% (manual data — see README) | UNMET | 2026-03 |
| | FINRA debit balances in customers' margin accounts trending down. Falling margin debt = forced deleveraging done; rising = late-cycle euphoria. |
| 4 | | Clear leading sectors | 17.7pp | ≥ 5pp | Leaders: Energy 15.2%, Healthcare 10.8%, Technology 5.8% | MET | — |
| | At least 3 SPDR sectors clearly outperform the laggards over 3M (top-3 mean − bottom-3 mean ≥ 5 percentage points). |
| 5 | | Earnings growth of leading sectors | +3.8% | > 0% | Energy -6.0%, Healthcare 3.1%, Technology 14.2% (manual data — as of 2026-Q1) | MET | 2026-Q1 |
| | Average Y/Y EPS growth of the top-3 leading sectors is positive. Sourced from FactSet Earnings Insight (manual entry — see README). |